Using the multiple capitals framework to connect indicators of regional cumulative impacts of mining and pastoralism in the Murray Darling Basin,Australia

It is commonly recognized that there are constraints to successful regional-scale assessment and monitoring of cumulative impacts because of challenges in the selection of coherent and measurable indicators of the effects. It has also been sensibly declared that the connections between components in a region are as important as the state of the elements themselves. These have previously been termed “linked” cumulative impacts/effects. These connections can be difficult to discern because of a complicated set of interactions and unexpected linkages. In this paper we diagnose that a significant cause of these constraints is the selection of indicators without due regard for their inter-relationships in the formulation of the indicator set. The paper examines whether the common “forms of capital”, i.e., natural (renewable and non-renewable), manufactured, social, human and financial capitals, framework is a potential organizing structure. We examine a large region in western NSW Australia where the predominant production systems are mining and grazing for production of wool, beef and lamb. Production in both is driven by consumption of a non-renewable resource, i.e., ore for mining and topsoil for grazing, the latter on the basis that loss rate estimates far exceed soil formation rates. We propose that the challenge of identifying connections of components within and between capital stores can be approached by explicitly separating stores of capital and the flows of capital between stores and between elements within stores, so-called capital fluxes. We attempt to acquire data from public sources for both capital stores and fluxes. The question of whether these data are a sufficient base for regional assessment, with particular reference to connections, is discussed. The well-described challenge of a comparative common currency for stores and fluxes is also discussed. We conclude that the data acquisition is relatively successful for stores and fluxes. A number of linked impacts are identified and discussed. The potential use of money as the common currency for stores and fluxes of capital is considered. The basic proposition is that replacement or preservation costs be used for this. We conclude that the study is sufficiently positive to consider further research in fully-coupled models of capital stores and fluxes.     

A review on the integration of artificial intelligence into coastal modeling

With the development of computing technology, mechanistic models are often employed to simulate processes in coastal environments. However, these predictive tools are inevitably highly specialized, involving certain assumptions and/or limitations, and can be manipulated only by experienced engineers who have a thorough understanding of the underlying theories. This results in significant constraints on their manipulation as well as large gaps in understanding and expectations between the developers and practitioners of a model. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are making it possible to integrate machine learning capabilities into numerical modeling systems in order to bridge the gaps and lessen the demands on human experts. The objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art in the integration of different AI technologies into coastal modeling. The algorithms and methods studied include knowledge-based systems, genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy inference systems. More focus is given to knowledge-based systems, which have apparent advantages over the others in allowing more transparent transfers of knowledge in the use of models and in furnishing the intelligent manipulation of calibration parameters. Of course, the other AI methods also have their individual contributions towards accurate and reliable predictions of coastal processes. The integrated model might be very powerful, since the advantages of each technique can be combined.     

Macroethical systems and sustainability science

The Industrial Revolution and associated economic, demographic, technological and cultural changes have resulted in what many scientists are beginning to refer to as “the Anthropocene” – roughly translated, the Age of Humans. One response to this development is the nascent field of “sustainability science,” a multidisciplinary and systemic attempt to perceive and understand this new era. In doing so, however, methodologies and intellectual frameworks must be developed which extend beyond existing, dominantly reductionist, approaches, and are intended to address emergent characteristics of complex systems that integrate cultural and social systems, the engineered and built environment and natural systems. In the area of ethics, this requires developing a capability for “macroethics,” or ethical systems and processes capable of addressing issues arising from the emergent behavior of the complicated systems that characterize the Anthropocene.     

Mapping Patterns of Human Use and Potential Resource Conflicts on Public Lands

Focusing on a 2.2 million hectare area surrounding the Lolo National Forest in western Montana, USA, we illustrate a GIS method for predicting patterns of human use on public lands and highlighting potential for impacts on fish and wildlife species. Data inputs include human population count (derived from the 1990 Census), roads and trails, and the predicted distributions of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and 41 terrestrial vertebrates of special concern. Because results highlight areas where conflicts between humans and resources may occur, they are of potential use to land managers. This approach can be applied wherever data are available, and inputs can be varied according to the topics of interest.     

金属体积塑性成形过程数值模拟技术与仿真系统

介绍了金属体积塑性成形过程数值模拟方法、关键应用技术及其仿真系统的构成和国内外相关软件系统,对二维、三维有限元网格自动生成技术进行了较为详细的论述,综述了金属塑性成形过程优化设计方法、有限体积法以及无网格方法的国内外现状。最后给出了目前存在的问题及其将来应努力的方向。     

HISTORICAL CHANGES IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER AREAS AND ISLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Periodic surveys of the upper Mississippi River since 1866 and a discharge record of nearly equal length provided an opportunity to learn more about the magnitudes and rates of geomorphic processes at work in large stream systems. Furthermore, geomorphic and hydrologic adjustments could be evaluated in relation to watershed land use changes, small‐scale climate fluctuations, and considerable modifications to the channel and floodplain during the period of record. The present study uses GIS mapping to quantitatively compare historical changes in mapped land and water phenomena in the upper Mississippi River Pool 10, located along southwest Wisconsin's border. Modest channel widening and decreases in island area throughout the study reach during the last century are detectable. Flood magnitudes and frequencies also have varied during this time, and stages and low flow discharges have increased since the 1940s. The latter hydrologic change appears to be closely associated with the reach's geomorphic adjustments. Results are representative of a valley reach where a major tributary contributes a large sand bedload, forming an alluvial fan of considerable size in the floodplain.     

Analysis of Factors Determining Accumulation of 137Cs by Woody Plants

The accumulation of ¹³⁷Cs by coniferous (Pinus sylvestris) and deciduous (Betula pendula) trees was studied in the area contaminated with radioactive products after the Chernobyl accident. The availability of ¹³⁷Cs to woody plants is determined by its vertical distribution in the soil profile, the proportion of its exchangeable form, and the distribution of tree roots in the soil. The index of biological availability of ¹³⁷C in the soil is proposed, and its linear dependence on the coefficients of ¹³⁷Cs transfer to wood is demonstrated.     

Organisational learning and self-adaptation in dynamic disaster environments

This paper examines the problems associated with inter-organisational learning and adaptation in the dynamic environments that characterise disasters. The research uses both qualitative and quantitative methods to investigate whether organisational learning took place during and in the time in between five disaster response operations in Turkey. The availability of information and its exchange and distribution within and among organisational actors determine whether self-adaptation happens in the course of a disaster response operation. Organisational flexibility supported by an appropriate information infrastructure creates conditions conducive to essential interaction and permits the flow of information. The study found that no significant organisational learning occurred within Turkish disaster management following the earthquakes in Erzincan (1992), Dinar (1995) and Ceyhan (1998). By contrast, the 'symmetry-breaking' Marmara earthquake of 1999 initiated a 'double loop' learning process that led to change in the organisational, technical and cultural aspects of Turkish disaster management, as revealed by the Duzce earthquake response operations.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A WATER SUPPLY PROTECTION MODEL IN A GIS1

ABSTRACT: As part of a larger model to identify lands suitable for acquisition, a water supply protection model was developed using the Southwest Florida Water Management District's GIS. Several hydrologic and hydrogeologic data layers were overlaid to develop maps showing ground-water supply suitability, protection areas for surface-water supply, protection areas for major public supply wells, susceptibility to ground-water contamination, and recharge to the Floridan aquifer. These intermediate layers were combined into a final map to prioritize protection areas for water supply.     

A systems approach to extraordinarily major coal mine accidents in China from 1997 to 2011: an application of the HFACS approach

This study aimed to provide a greater understanding of the systemic factors involved in coal mine accidents and to examine the relationships between the contributing factors across all levels of the system. Ninety-four extraordinarily major coal mine accidents that occurred in China from 1997 to 2011 were analyzed using the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS). The empirical results showed that the frequencies of unsafe behaviors, inadequate regulation and failure to correct hidden dangers were the highest among five levels, 14 categories and 48 indicators, respectively. The odds ratio technique was applied to quantitatively examine the relationships between contributing factors. Various statistically significant associations were discovered and should receive greater attention in future attempts to develop accident measures. In addition, several strategies concerning the main contributing factors and routes to failure are proposed to prevent accidents from reoccurring in an organization.